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It’s that Hurricane time of the year again

May 29, 2008

By: Judie Mackie –The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) forecast for the six-month Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, calls for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes.

NOAA forecasts that two to five hurricanes will be Category 3 or higher. NOAA’s forecasters this year added the category of “probabilities” to its prediction, acknowledging its long-range forecasts were way off in some years.

“The probabilities better convey that there is uncertainty in these outlooks,” said Gerry Bell, forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in Miami.

Also new this year will be the use of remote-controlled airplanes by NOAA’s storm researchers. The planes will be able to penetrate the heart of Atlantic hurricanes to learn more about what makes these storms tick.

The 21 storm names for 2008 begin with Arthur and end with Wilfred but do not include a Barack, Hillary or John.

So here is my take on hurricane season. My family says I am a weather junkie. Long before hurricane season begins, I have my tracking chart in hand. My mother bought me a fancy gadget to read average wind speed, gusting speeds, wind direction and temperature for my birthday. For Christmas, my husband bought me a weather book with so much detailed information it even has blank pages to make my own forecast predictions. When they find me seated in front of The Weather Channel in the middle of hurricane season, my nickname is The Tropical Junkie.

I realized a few years ago that my hurricane kit and my camping gear are one in the same. I combined all of the gear and replenish the supplies as needed. Because our family loves to go camping, we never have stale supplies. Take a look at a recommended list of items for your hurricane kit and you too, will notice that the items are also good for camping. By adding stuff like our camp stove, tent and sleeping bags we may be just a bit more comfortable should we need to evacuate.

In 1999, we boarded up the house and fled from Hurricane Floyd. Returning home, we removed the boards and spray painted each of them with their location. We keep them safe from the elements in the garage to be used again should we need them.

Living in the Northeast corner of Florida, some say we are more protected than others on the East coast because we don’t stick out as far into the Atlantic Ocean. The most recent hurricane to make landfall in our area was when Dora hit near St. Augustine in 1964 and that was well to the south of us.

If a hurricane like Katrina were ever to make a direct hit near the Jacksonville area, the results would be just as devastating. Katrina, a category five over the Gulf of Mexico was downgraded to a category three upon landfall. Below is the Saffir-Simpson scale of categorizing the potential damage of a land falling hurricane.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane’s present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale because storm surge values fluctuate depending on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall area.

Category One Hurricane: Winds are 74-95 mph and the storm surge is generally 4-5 ft above normal. Damage is primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage is likely.

Category Two Hurricane: Winds are 96-110 mph and the storm surge rises to 6-8 feet above normal. Some roof, door and window damage can be expected of buildings and considerable damage to shrubbery, mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.

Category Three Hurricane: Winds are 111-130 mph and the storm surge is expected to be 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings and shrubs and trees will have their foliage blown off and large trees could blow down. Some mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.

Category Four Hurricane: Winds increase to 131-155 mph and the storm surge is generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive damage such as complete roof failures can be expected. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes.

Category Five Hurricane: Devastating winds will be greater than 155 mph and the storm surge is generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Complete destruction of mobile homes and extensive window and door damage to almost all buildings.

When a HURRICANE WATCH is issued, this means you can expect possible hurricane conditions within 36 hours. You should activate your family’s hurricane plan at this time. When a HURRICANE WARNING is issued, you can expect sustained winds of at least 74 mph within 24 hours. At this time you should be paying close attention to evacuation orders from you local authorities, provided you can. Here on Amelia Island we have 2 bridge connections to the mainland which gives us the chance to get out. No such luck for our brothers down in St. Martin-St. Maarten. Nothing to connect to.

When a hurricane is approaching your area, listen carefully to weather alerts and what actions your local authorities recommend you take. Evacuate if you must and if you can, try to be prepared so you can beat the traffic out of town. If you are not asked to evacuate, please don’t and leave the roadways clear for those that are required to leave their homes. Always use a friend or family members phone number that is not in the hurricane area as a message center to stay in touch with your loved ones. We use relatives in Kentucky and feel pretty sure that even if the storm makes it that far inland, their telephones should remain useful and unharmed. No matter what your personal hurricane preparedness tends to be, keep yourself, your loved ones, your neighbors, your pets and your property safe.

Written by stringdude · Filed Under This Hurricane Season 

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