Tropical storm headed for Haiti and D.R.
August 26, 2008
August 26, 2008 — Tropical Storm Gustav, packing wind gusts of 60 mph, formed in the central Caribbean today and was heading for the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Read more
The Caymans give Hurricane Guarantee
August 13, 2008
With two tropical systems looming in the far Atlantic, out comes another worry-free hurricane guarantee, this from the Cayman Islands. Read more
Hurricane Predictions Increased by Forecast Team
August 6, 2008
COLORADO STATE HURRICANE FORECAST TEAM INCREASES FORECAST SLIGHTLY, CONTINUES TO PREDICT VERY ACTIVE SEASON
FORT COLLINS - The Colorado State University hurricane team today increased the number of storms expected to form in the Atlantic this season based on warm sea surface temperatures and low sea level pressures observed over the tropical Atlantic in June and July, combined with an active early season in the deep tropics. Read more
Some bad weather reaching St. Maarten - July 31 6:30am
July 31, 2008
Due to lessened shearing of upper level winds the weak tropical wave has grown dramatically and will reach St. Maarten by about 7:30 am this morning. It is unclear to what extend this wave will influence St. Maarten and Saint Martin but significant amounts of rain are possible.
A flash flood warming may go into effect this morning and mariner precaution should be taken note of.
If additional warnings will be posted should reporting these be necessary.
TS Dolly is taking a more northerly course and could aim at Louisiana
July 20, 2008
St. Maarten 1am, July 21: Earlier forecasts had Tropical storm Dolly moving west northwest and thus reaching the Yucatan peninsula crossing over and emerging in the gulf of Mexico, but it seems Dolly will stay over water and take aim at Louisiana or the Panhandle of Florida.
Could St. Maarten be hit by a Second Storm called Bertha?
July 6, 2008
Theoretically it does belong to the possibilities since the current Bertha has left its more northerly track and is now on a westerly track along the 17 degrees North racing towards the northern Caribbean Islands.
Monitoring Large disturbance off the coast of Africa
July 3, 2008
In the eastern Atlantic, a well defined low pressure center is located about 270 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands and is swirling toward the west with flare ups of thunderstorms near the center.
First Hurricane System off Cape Verde
July 2, 2008
8:30AM AST Jul 2, 2008 — A very large tropical wave came off the African Coast at Cape Verde. It has, due to thunderstorms, a weak surface low pressure and favorable upper level winds, potential to develop into the season’s second tropical depression, the first have developed in the Caribbean. Read more
R.I.P. Dean, Felix and Noel
June 11, 2008
Source: NOAA — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The names Dean, Felix, and Noel, three of the most devastating storms of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, were retired by members of the 30th Session of the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee during its annual meeting recently held in Orlando, Fla.
Members of the committee, which includes representatives from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, can remove names associated with storms that cause significant loss of life and property. These names will not be used again because of the wide spread destruction caused by these storms.
The committee issues a list of potential names for tropical cyclones every six years and for 2013, Dean, Felix, and Noel have been replaced with Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor. Since tropical cyclones were first named in 1953, 70 names have been retired, the first two being Carol and Hazel in 1954.
Details of the newly retired 2007 named storms are shown below:
DEAN passed between St. Lucia and Martinique on Aug. 17 on a remarkably constant heading across the Caribbean Sea, passing just south of Jamaica with Category 4 winds of 145 mph. Over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Dean reached Category 5 strength of 165 mph just before landfall on Aug. 21 near Costa Maya on the Yucatan Peninsula. It weakened over land but emerged into the Bay of Campeche, strengthening to Category 2 status just before landfall the next day south of Tuxpan, Mexico. Dean is directly responsible for 32 deaths across the Caribbean, with the largest tolls in Mexico and Haiti.
FELIX was the second hurricane of the season to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane, a feat never seen before in records dating back to 1851. Felix became a hurricane on Sept. 1 over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. It rapidly intensified, and Felix became a Category 5 hurricane about 400 miles southeast of Jamaica. The storm weakened to Category 3 but re-intensified to Category 5 status just before landfall on Sept. 4 at Punta Gorda, Nicaragua. Felix was responsible for 130 deaths in Nicaragua and Honduras, causing major damage in northeastern Nicaragua and inland flooding over portions of Central America.
NOEL was a slow-moving tropical storm from Oct. 25 to Oct. 31, while over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern Cuba and the lower Bahamas before reaching Category 1 hurricane strength on Nov. 1 in the northwestern Bahamas. As it accelerated northeast over the western Atlantic waters near Nantucket Island, Mass., it was no longer classified as a tropical system but packed 75 mph winds as it came ashore near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. Noel was responsible for at least 160 deaths across the Caribbean and Bahamas. The system produced hurricane force winds over portions of the northeast U.S. and Canada, producing widespread power outages. It also produced significant coastal flooding and wave action that washed out coastal roads in portions of Nova Scotia.
Names for the upcoming 2008 Atlantic season, which began June 1, include Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.
It’s that Hurricane time of the year again
May 29, 2008
By: Judie Mackie –The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) forecast for the six-month Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, calls for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes.
NOAA forecasts that two to five hurricanes will be Category 3 or higher. NOAA’s forecasters this year added the category of “probabilities” to its prediction, acknowledging its long-range forecasts were way off in some years.
“The probabilities better convey that there is uncertainty in these outlooks,” said Gerry Bell, forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in Miami.
Also new this year will be the use of remote-controlled airplanes by NOAA’s storm researchers. The planes will be able to penetrate the heart of Atlantic hurricanes to learn more about what makes these storms tick.
The 21 storm names for 2008 begin with Arthur and end with Wilfred but do not include a Barack, Hillary or John.
So here is my take on hurricane season. My family says I am a weather junkie. Long before hurricane season begins, I have my tracking chart in hand. My mother bought me a fancy gadget to read average wind speed, gusting speeds, wind direction and temperature for my birthday. For Christmas, my husband bought me a weather book with so much detailed information it even has blank pages to make my own forecast predictions. When they find me seated in front of The Weather Channel in the middle of hurricane season, my nickname is The Tropical Junkie.
I realized a few years ago that my hurricane kit and my camping gear are one in the same. I combined all of the gear and replenish the supplies as needed. Because our family loves to go camping, we never have stale supplies. Take a look at a recommended list of items for your hurricane kit and you too, will notice that the items are also good for camping. By adding stuff like our camp stove, tent and sleeping bags we may be just a bit more comfortable should we need to evacuate.
In 1999, we boarded up the house and fled from Hurricane Floyd. Returning home, we removed the boards and spray painted each of them with their location. We keep them safe from the elements in the garage to be used again should we need them.
Living in the Northeast corner of Florida, some say we are more protected than others on the East coast because we don’t stick out as far into the Atlantic Ocean. The most recent hurricane to make landfall in our area was when Dora hit near St. Augustine in 1964 and that was well to the south of us.
If a hurricane like Katrina were ever to make a direct hit near the Jacksonville area, the results would be just as devastating. Katrina, a category five over the Gulf of Mexico was downgraded to a category three upon landfall. Below is the Saffir-Simpson scale of categorizing the potential damage of a land falling hurricane.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane’s present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale because storm surge values fluctuate depending on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall area.
Category One Hurricane: Winds are 74-95 mph and the storm surge is generally 4-5 ft above normal. Damage is primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage is likely.
Category Two Hurricane: Winds are 96-110 mph and the storm surge rises to 6-8 feet above normal. Some roof, door and window damage can be expected of buildings and considerable damage to shrubbery, mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
Category Three Hurricane: Winds are 111-130 mph and the storm surge is expected to be 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings and shrubs and trees will have their foliage blown off and large trees could blow down. Some mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.
Category Four Hurricane: Winds increase to 131-155 mph and the storm surge is generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive damage such as complete roof failures can be expected. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes.
Category Five Hurricane: Devastating winds will be greater than 155 mph and the storm surge is generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Complete destruction of mobile homes and extensive window and door damage to almost all buildings.
When a HURRICANE WATCH is issued, this means you can expect possible hurricane conditions within 36 hours. You should activate your family’s hurricane plan at this time. When a HURRICANE WARNING is issued, you can expect sustained winds of at least 74 mph within 24 hours. At this time you should be paying close attention to evacuation orders from you local authorities, provided you can. Here on Amelia Island we have 2 bridge connections to the mainland which gives us the chance to get out. No such luck for our brothers down in St. Martin-St. Maarten. Nothing to connect to.
When a hurricane is approaching your area, listen carefully to weather alerts and what actions your local authorities recommend you take. Evacuate if you must and if you can, try to be prepared so you can beat the traffic out of town. If you are not asked to evacuate, please don’t and leave the roadways clear for those that are required to leave their homes. Always use a friend or family members phone number that is not in the hurricane area as a message center to stay in touch with your loved ones. We use relatives in Kentucky and feel pretty sure that even if the storm makes it that far inland, their telephones should remain useful and unharmed. No matter what your personal hurricane preparedness tends to be, keep yourself, your loved ones, your neighbors, your pets and your property safe.
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